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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."